N-MFP3 filed early Sept for 31 Aug shows centrally cleared repo BELOW 40% of the repo book
A money market fund's repo book had been 81% centrally cleared in June. I said the August filing would show under 40%. It showed zero, on a $49.6bn book.
Macro and filings analyst in Istanbul. Each position is logged the day it goes out, with an entry level and a deadline attached. Outcomes are scored against the source document.
21 resolved calls is a small sample and should be read as one. 12 calls were voided as ungradeable, with the reason stated on each.
A money market fund's repo book had been 81% centrally cleared in June. I said the August filing would show under 40%. It showed zero, on a $49.6bn book.
The market was pricing a pivot. I said no cut at either the July or September meeting. July held with three dissents wanting a hike; September hiked.
A specific BLS release, a specific line, called a month out from the trade detail rather than from commentary.
One CUSIP, one week, a squeeze and its release. Called from the securities lending data.
I said the next four long-end buyback operations would retire more 2049-52 paper than 2040-42. They retired $1.0bn against $6.8bn. Wrong by 6.7 times.
A 10s30s steepener put on two weeks after I had already forecast a Fed hike. The hike flattened the curve. I was right about the Fed and positioned against myself.
| # | Call | Type | Called | Deadline | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 212 | TIP rated HOLD at $105.27 | Other | 2026-09-21 | 2027-03-31 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 211 | October 2026 TIPS reference-CPI accrual prints at +0.3180% (locked, zero forecast) | Macro event | 2026-09-20 | 2026-11-15 | Open | X ↗ |
| 210 | TRADE: long 10-year breakeven entered at 2.33% on 18 Sep 2026 close, exit by 31 Oct 2026, stop 2.15% | Position | 2026-09-20 | 2026-10-30 | Void | X ↗ |
| 209 | TBAC does NOT raise 5-year or 10-year TIPS auction sizes at the November 2026 quarterly refunding | Other | 2026-09-20 | 2026-11-04 | Open | X ↗ |
| 208 | Accumulated TIPS inflation compensation (MSPD Table 3, Total Treasury TIPS) falls below $380bn in the 31 Oct 2026 report | Filing mechanic | 2026-09-20 | 2026-11-05 | Open | X ↗ |
| 207 | CUSIP 91282CDC2 redeems on 15 Oct 2026 at total cash of at least $46.5bn against $38.3bn of par | Filing mechanic | 2026-09-20 | 2026-10-15 | Open | X ↗ |
| 187 | i-80 Gold's Q3 2026 adjusted net loss STILL excludes the NSR Royalty fair value movement | Other | 2026-09-05 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 186 | i-80 Gold draws the $100mn accordion OR announces new equity or debt financing before 31 March 2027 | Filing mechanic | 2026-09-05 | 2027-03-31 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 185 | i-80 Gold total liabilities print ABOVE $915,790k at 30 Sept 2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-09-05 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 184 | Non-cash fair value losses on i-80's financing instruments EXCEED gross profit again in Q3 2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-09-05 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 183 | i-80 Gold's 2026 Gold Prepay embedded derivative asset prints ABOVE $29,893k at 30 Sept 2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-09-05 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 182 | i-80 Gold's NSR Royalty liability prints ABOVE $256,035k at 30 Sept 2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-09-05 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 181 | IAUX rated HOLD at $1.79; fair value $1.40-1.60 | Other | 2026-09-05 | 2027-03-31 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 180 | A FOURTH state commission approves a large-load tariff carrying a minimum bill or minimum billing demand provision by 30 Jun 2027 | Other | 2026-08-28 | 2027-06-30 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 179 | Evergy's disclosed large-load remaining performance obligations print ABOVE $8.9bn at 31 Dec 2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-28 | 2027-03-31 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 178 | Ameren discloses a QUANTIFIED remaining performance obligation for large load customers by the FY2026 10-K | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-28 | 2027-03-31 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 177 | Ameren's net collateral posted by large load customers RISES above the ~$43mn Ameren Missouri level in the Q3 2026 10-Q | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-28 | 2026-11-30 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 176 | Evergy does NOT break out large-load or data-centre revenue as a separate line in its Q3 2026 10-Q | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-28 | 2026-11-30 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 175 | Evergy's unbilled customer receivables at 30 Sept 2026 print ABOVE $244.6mn, the first evidence of large-load arrival | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-28 | 2026-11-30 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 174 | EVRG total return BEATS AEE total return from 27 Aug 2026 to 31 Mar 2027 | Other | 2026-08-28 | 2027-03-31 | Void | Source ↗ |
| 173 | At least ONE additional US utility beyond Evergy quantifies a large-load contractual minimum in its Q3 2026 10-Q | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-28 | 2026-11-30 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 172 | OG&E's XLPL tariff is approved by the Oklahoma Corporation Commission WITH a minimum billing demand provision intact | Other | 2026-08-28 | 2027-03-31 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 171 | A THIRD US utility discloses signed or executed large-load electric service agreements with a quantified minimum obligation by 31 Mar 2027 | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-28 | 2027-03-31 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 170 | Ameren continues to disclose remaining performance obligations over one year as immaterial in its Q3 2026 10-Q | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-28 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 169 | Evergy's disclosed large-load remaining performance obligations print ABOVE $8.9bn at 30 Sept 2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-28 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 168 | JRVR tangible common equity per share EXCLUDING the deferred-gain add-back prints BELOW $6.68 at 30 Sept 2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-26 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 167 | JRVR deferred reinsurance gain prints BELOW $107,836k at 30 Sept 2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-25 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 166 | JRVR reports a combined ratio ABOVE 100% for FY2026 | Other | 2026-08-25 | 2027-03-15 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 165 | JRVR gross written premiums for FY2026 print BELOW $1.10bn against $1.34bn annualised H1 2025 pace | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-25 | 2027-03-15 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 164 | Cumulative amounts ceded to the Commercial Auto LPT stay AT $451.4mn in the Q3 filing | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-25 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 163 | JRVR does NOT announce a new retroactive reinsurance cover on the E&S casualty book before 31 Dec 2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-25 | 2026-12-31 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 162 | JRVR shareholders' equity prints BELOW $522,601k at 30 Sept 2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-25 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 161 | JRVR Q3 2026 reported net adverse reserve development prints ABOVE $2.0mn | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-25 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 160 | JRVR rated SELL at $4.11; fair value $3.00-3.50 (0.45x tangible common equity of $7.67/sh) | Other | 2026-08-25 | 2027-02-28 | Open | Seeking Alpha ↗ |
| 159 | Riot's weighted average forward price input prints BELOW 48.60 $/MWh | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-21 | 2026-11-10 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 158 | Riot's Q3 power curtailment credits print ABOVE the 10.054mn of Q2 | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-21 | 2026-11-10 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 157 | PG&E's CRR weighted average stays BETWEEN 1 and 3 dollars in the Q3 filing | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-21 | 2026-11-10 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 156 | Vistra's settlement point price difference prints BELOW minus 12.5 $/MWh in the Q3 filing | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-21 | 2026-11-10 | Open | Source ↗ |
| 155 | USDC supply on 31 Dec 2026 is BELOW $71.99bn | Other | 2026-08-18 | 2026-12-31 | Open | |
| 154 | 20-year bonds stay ABOVE 35% of USDC bond collateral in the 31 Aug N-MFP3 | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-18 | early September filing | Void | |
| 153 | N-MFP3 filed early Sept for 31 Aug shows centrally cleared repo BELOW 40% of the repo book | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-18 | early September filing | Won | |
| 152 | Circle Q3 2026 reserve income prints BELOW $667.7mn sequentially | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-18 | Q3 2026 results, late Oct / early Nov | Open | |
| 151 | 912797TV9 lending fee prints above 3.000% between 17-21 Aug, THEN returns to the 5bp floor within three sessions of settlement | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-28 | Won | X ↗ |
| 150 | FALSIFICATION TEST: SOMA bill holdings rise by more than $20bn over any 8-week window in which outright purchase operations total less than $5bn | Other | 2026-08-13 | 2026-12-31 | Open | |
| 149 | Reserve balances print below $2,800,000mn on any weekly reading | Other | 2026-08-13 | 2026-12-31 | Open | |
| 148 | Monthly outright Treasury purchase operations total below $10bn in at least one calendar month | Other | 2026-08-13 | 2026-12-31 | Open | |
| 147 | SOMA Treasury bill holdings print above $600,000mn on any weekly reading | Other | 2026-08-13 | 2026-12-31 | Open | |
| 146 | 10s30s STEEPENER (long 10-year vs short 30-year) | Position | 2026-08-13 | 2026-09-22 | Lost | |
| 145 | FALSIFICATION TEST: over the 60 days to 12 October 2026, the rise in staked ETH is fully accounted for by the fall in exchange reserves plus new issuance (residual at or below zero) | Other | 2026-08-13 | 2026-10-12 | Void | |
| 144 | ETH closes 30 September 2026 above $1,884 | Other | 2026-08-13 | 2026-09-30 | Void | |
| 143 | Total staked ETH prints above 42,500,000 before 30 September 2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-08-13 | 2026-09-30 | Void | |
| 142 | Ethereum validator exit queue breaks above 100,000 ETH on any daily reading before 30 September 2026 | Other | 2026-08-13 | 2026-09-30 | Void | |
| 141 | Long 13-week Treasury bills as the competing trade to staked ETH | Position | 2026-08-13 | 13 weeks | Void | |
| 140 | NOWHERE NEAR long ETH | Position | 2026-08-13 | open-ended | Void | |
| 130 | The next four long-end buyback operations retire more 2049-2052 par than 2040-2042 par | Other | 2026-08-06 | when the fourth settles | Lost | X ↗ |
| 129 | November 2026 refunding cuts 20-year nominal auction sizes again | Other | 2026-08-06 | 2026-11-04 | Void | X ↗ |
| 128 | LONG 20-year vs SHORT 30-year (20s30s spread) | Position | 2026-08-06 | 2026-09-22 | Won | X ↗ |
| 110 | Long ETH against BTC | Position | 2026-08-01 | open-ended | Won | X ↗ |
| 109 | Short BTC, target 55,000, out at 70,500 | Position | 2026-08-01 | open-ended | Restated | X ↗ |
| 104 | Short SHY (iShares 1-3yr Treasury) | Position | 2026-07-30 | open-ended | Open | X ↗ |
| 103 | SHORT SOXL — real fill, CLOSED | Position | 2026-07-27 | closed 30 Jul 2026 | Won | X ↗ |
| 102 | Daily leveraged-ETF rebalancing flow prints above $60bn on at least one session before 30 September 2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-07-27 | 2026-10-07 | Open | X ↗ |
| 101 | SOXS announces another reverse split before 31 December 2026 | Other | 2026-07-27 | 2027-01-15 | Open | X ↗ |
| 100 | RESTATEMENT OF #87 — US spot bitcoin ETF flows finish 2026 net negative | Other | 2026-07-21 | 2027-01-15 | Restated | X ↗ |
| 99 | RESTATEMENT OF #86 — the Coinbase premium prints negative again before September | Filing mechanic | 2026-07-21 | 2026-09-01 | Restated | X ↗ |
| 98 | RESTATEMENT OF #13 — short BTC from ~62,500, real fill | Position | 2026-07-21 | open-ended | Restated | X ↗ |
| 97 | SHORT EWG (Germany equity ETF) — real fill | Position | 2026-07-26 | open-ended | Lost | X ↗ |
| 96 | US terms of trade with Canada stays below 100 through year-end 2026 | Other | 2026-07-26 | 2027-01-15 | Open | X ↗ |
| 95 | The US-Germany terms of trade index prints above 132.0 in the 18 August release (July data) | Filing mechanic | 2026-07-26 | 2026-08-31 | Lost | X ↗ |
| 94 | RESTATEMENT OF #91 — US core goods CPI turns up year-on-year before December 2026 | Macro event | 2026-07-25 | 2026-12-01 | Restated | X ↗ |
| 93 | The US import price index for capital goods prints above 100 in the 18 August release (July data), first time since 2000 | Filing mechanic | 2026-07-25 | 2026-08-31 | Won | X ↗ |
| 92 | The BLS import/export release of 18 August 2026 (July data) prints a China 12-month rate hotter than +1.3% | Filing mechanic | 2026-07-25 | 2026-08-31 | Won | |
| 91 | US core goods CPI turns up year-on-year before December 2026 | Macro event | 2026-07-24 | 2026-12-01 | Open | |
| 90 | VOIDED BY THE AUTHOR — invalid at origin, never to be scored | Other | 2026-07-24 | n/a | Void | |
| 89 | AI-capex leaders lose to the S&P 500 from here to year-end | Other | 2026-07-23 | 2026-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 88 | At least one of the four big hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) prints negative or near-zero free cash flow again in Q3 2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-07-23 | 2026-11-15 | Open | X ↗ |
| 87 | US spot bitcoin ETF flows finish calendar 2026 net negative | Other | 2026-07-21 | 2026-12-31 | Open | |
| 86 | The Coinbase Premium Index prints at least one more negative session before 1 September 2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-07-21 | 2026-09-01 | Won | |
| 85 | The crude tanker orderbook does NOT set another record in H2 2026 | Other | 2026-07-20 | 2027-01-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 84 | VLCC TD3C (Middle East Gulf to China) prints below $150,000/day on at least one assessment before end-2026 | Filing mechanic | 2026-07-20 | 2026-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 83 | The 2027 annual TC/RC benchmark settles at or below zero | Other | 2026-07-19 | 2027-01-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 82 | Spot copper treatment charges (TC/RCs) are still negative at end-2026 | Other | 2026-07-19 | 2026-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 81 | Long copper miners (COPX), real fill | Position | 2026-07-19 | open-ended | Won | X ↗ |
| 80 | The Fed speeds up its asset purchases OR runs an emergency/expanded cash injection within 12 months | Macro event | 2026-07-19 | 2027-07-19 | Open | X ↗ |
| 79 | Overnight funding spikes above the TOP of the fed funds target range on >=1 day before end-2026 (likely a quarter-end) | Macro event | 2026-07-19 | 2026-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 78 | Fed balance sheet is larger 6 months from now than today | Macro event | 2026-07-19 | 2027-01-19 | Open | X ↗ |
| 77 | DRAM contract prices higher at end of Q1 2027 than today | Other | 2026-07-18 | 2027-03-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 76 | Micron non-GAAP gross margin stays above 70% across its next two quarterly reports | Other | 2026-07-18 | 2026-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 75 | Micron (MU) trades higher 12 months from now than ~$806 | Other | 2026-07-18 | 2027-07-18 | Open | X ↗ |
| 74 | Long Micron (MU), real fill | Position | 2026-07-18 | open-ended | Won | X ↗ |
| 73 | Antimony price is higher 12 months from now than today | Other | 2026-07-17 | 2027-07-17 | Open | X ↗ |
| 72 | China does NOT permanently remove antimony export controls at the Nov 2026 expiry, OR reimposes some form within 12 months | Other | 2026-07-17 | 2027-07-17 | Open | X ↗ |
| 71 | Perpetua (PPTA) outperforms the price of gold over the next 12 months | Other | 2026-07-17 | 2027-07-17 | Open | X ↗ |
| 70 | Long Perpetua Resources (PPTA), real fill | Position | 2026-07-17 | open-ended | Won | X ↗ |
| 69 | At least one of Microsoft/Google/Meta/Amazon reports HIGHER emissions in its next annual environmental report | Other | 2026-07-16 | 2027-08-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 68 | GE Vernova total backlog crosses $200B by end of 2028 | Other | 2026-07-16 | 2028-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 67 | GE Vernova (GEV) beats the S&P 500 on total return over the next 12 months | Other | 2026-07-16 | 2027-07-16 | Open | X ↗ |
| 66 | Long GE Vernova (GEV), real fill | Position | 2026-07-16 | open-ended | Lost | X ↗ |
| 65 | Headline CPI still excludes homeowners insurance 24 months from now (no methodology change) | Macro event | 2026-07-15 | 2028-07-15 | Open | X ↗ |
| 64 | US average home insurance premium sets another record in 2026 (5th straight annual rise) | Other | 2026-07-15 | 2026-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 63 | Allstate (ALL) beats the S&P 500 on total return over the next 12 months | Other | 2026-07-15 | 2027-07-15 | Open | X ↗ |
| 62 | Long Allstate (ALL), real fill | Position | 2026-07-15 | open-ended | Won | X ↗ |
| 61 | A sharp cross-currency basis blowout (visible dollar-funding stress) within 12 months | Other | 2026-07-14 | 2027-07-14 | Open | X ↗ |
| 60 | Fed reopens/expands a dollar swap line OR taps the SRF hard within 18 months | Macro event | 2026-07-14 | 2028-01-14 | Open | X ↗ |
| 59 | Dollar index (DXY) closes above 108 at least once within 12 months on a risk-off/funding scare | Other | 2026-07-14 | 2027-07-14 | Open | X ↗ |
| 58 | Long the dollar (UUP), real fill | Position | 2026-07-14 | open-ended | Open | X ↗ |
| 57 | Regulators tighten offshore affiliated reinsurance rules within 18 months (capital pushed back onshore) | Other | 2026-07-14 | 2028-01-14 | Open | X ↗ |
| 56 | US private credit default rate stays above 5% through end of 2026 | Other | 2026-07-14 | 2026-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 55 | A PE-owned life insurer or its Bermuda reinsurer gets downgraded, OR a marquee affiliated block gets flagged, within 12 months | Other | 2026-07-14 | 2027-07-14 | Open | X ↗ |
| 54 | Short Apollo (APO), real fill | Position | 2026-07-14 | open-ended | Open | X ↗ |
| 53 | Cameco trades back above its old high ~$135 within 18 months | Other | 2026-07-13 | 2028-01-13 | Open | X ↗ |
| 52 | Another retired US reactor gets a restart deal OR a hyperscaler signs a fresh multi-GW nuclear contract within 12 months | Other | 2026-07-13 | 2027-07-13 | Open | X ↗ |
| 51 | Uranium spot price prints above $100/lb within 12 months | Filing mechanic | 2026-07-13 | 2027-07-13 | Open | X ↗ |
| 50 | Long Cameco (CCJ), real fill | Position | 2026-07-13 | open-ended | Open | X ↗ |
| 49 | A single-week yen move of 5%+ hits global stocks within 12 months | Other | 2026-07-12 | 2027-07-12 | Open | X ↗ |
| 48 | USD/JPY trades back below 150 at least once within 12 months | Other | 2026-07-12 | 2027-07-12 | Open | X ↗ |
| 47 | BOJ hikes OR MoF intervenes again within 3 months | Other | 2026-07-12 | 2026-10-12 | Open | X ↗ |
| 46 | Long yen / short USD/JPY, real fill | Position | 2026-07-12 | open-ended | Open | X ↗ |
| 45 | A marquee off-balance-sheet or GPU-backed AI financing gets restructured or frozen within 18 months | Other | 2026-07-11 | 2028-01-11 | Open | X ↗ |
| 44 | At least one major AI/data-center borrower has credit cut or spreads blow out within 12 months | Position | 2026-07-11 | 2027-07-11 | Open | X ↗ |
| 43 | Aggregate big-tech free cash flow prints negative in a 2026 quarter | Filing mechanic | 2026-07-11 | 2026-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 42 | A memory price peak-to-trough drawdown of 30%+ begins within 24 months (the cycle-top call) | Other | 2026-07-11 | 2028-07-11 | Open | X ↗ |
| 41 | At least one of the big three (Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron) guides HBM or DRAM sold out deeper into 2027 within 6 months | Other | 2026-07-11 | 2027-01-11 | Open | X ↗ |
| 40 | Server DRAM contract prices keep rising through Q4 2026 (no clean peak in Q3) | Other | 2026-07-11 | 2026-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 39 | A private-credit / nonbank real estate lender takes a major markdown or freezes redemptions within 12 months | Other | 2026-07-10 | 2027-07-10 | Open | X ↗ |
| 38 | At least one US regional bank with heavy CRE fails or is forced into a rescue sale within 12 months | Other | 2026-07-10 | 2027-07-10 | Open | X ↗ |
| 37 | Office CMBS delinquency stays above 10% through end of 2026 | Other | 2026-07-10 | 2026-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 35 | US crude production sets a fresh all-time record in 2026 | Other | 2026-07-09 | 2026-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 24 | Subprime-minus-prime delinquency gap wider a year from now | Other | 2026-07-07 | 2027-07-07 | Open | X ↗ |
| 23 | At least one subprime consumer lender (auto/card/BNPL) major writedown or failure within 12 months | Other | 2026-07-07 | 2027-07-07 | Open | X ↗ |
| 22 | Subprime auto 60-day delinquency still above 6% at end of 2026 | Other | 2026-07-07 | 2026-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 21 | Top-10 share of S&P 500 lower than ~40% three years out | Other | 2026-07-07 | 2029-07-07 | Open | X ↗ |
| 20 | Equal-weight S&P beats cap-weight S&P over next 3 years | Other | 2026-07-07 | 2029-07-07 | Open | X ↗ |
| 19 | OpenAI actual 2026 revenue lands under $30B | Other | 2026-07-06 | 2027-03-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 18 | Nvidia data-center revenue growth rate decelerates hard | Other | 2026-07-06 | 2027-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 17 | At least one marquee circular AI deal restructured or written down | Other | 2026-07-06 | 2028-01-06 | Open | X ↗ |
| 16 | 30Y Treasury yield tags 5.5% before it tags 3.5% | Other | 2026-07-06 | OPEN-ENDED | Open | X ↗ |
| 15 | Interest crosses 20% of federal revenue | Other | 2026-07-06 | 2027-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 14 | US net interest tops defense outlays again in FY2026 | Other | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-30 | Open | X ↗ |
| 13 | Short BTC, real fill | Position | 2026-07-05 | open-ended | Lost | X ↗ |
| 12 | No Fed rate cut at the July 28-29 or Sept 15-16 meeting | Macro event | 2026-07-05 | 2026-09-16 | Won | X ↗ |
| 11 | Bitcoin trades back under $60,000 at least once | Other | 2026-07-05 | 2026-08-05 | Lost | X ↗ |
| 10 | US spot BTC ETFs net outflows over trailing 30 days | Other | 2026-07-05 | 2026-08-05 | Lost | X ↗ |
| 9 | US 10-year above 5% before this cycle ends | Other | 2026-07-01 | OPEN-ENDED | Open | X ↗ |
| 8 | Treasury bill share still above 20% at year-end | Other | 2026-07-01 | 2026-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 7 | A hyperscaler acquires a bitcoin miner outright within 12 months | Other | 2026-07-04 | 2027-07-04 | Open | X ↗ |
| 6 | Negative US payroll print within 6 months, misread as recession | Macro event | 2026-07-04 | 2027-01-04 | Open | X ↗ |
| 5 | Major sovereign gold reserve reveal within 12 months | Other | 2026-07-03 | 2027-07-03 | Open | X ↗ |
| 4 | WGC Q2 report shows flows a multiple of reported buying | Filing mechanic | 2026-07-03 | 2026-08-15 | Void | X ↗ |
| 3 | Congressional hearing/markup touching gold revaluation in 2026 | Other | 2026-07-02 | 2026-12-31 | Open | X ↗ |
| 2 | Gold back above $5,000 | Other | 2026-07-02 | 2027-07-02 | Open | X ↗ |
| 1 | Long gold, real fill | Position | 2026-07-02 | open-ended | Open | X ↗ |
A call enters the ledger on the day it publishes, with the entry level and the deadline written down. Nothing is added after an outcome is known.
A record you can only win on is not a record. Every loss is here with the reason it failed.
Where a call could not be graded, because the resolving source did not exist or the terms were never defined, it is voided and the reason is stated rather than quietly dropped.
Geopolitics and memecoin coverage were removed when the focus moved to macro and filings work. Both categories came out whole, wins and losses together, and the removed calls are archived.